Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Strategy

So, I am in my second season of fantasy baseball and I thought I would post my thoughts on my struggle for greatness. First, I play with 9 other guys who are all serious baseball fans. I like baseball but am not a die-hard fan. We are doing a keeper league with 3 utility players on top of your normal fielding positions and 6 Starting Pitchers and 2 Relievers. The stats we use are: Runs, RBI, AVG, HR, SB, ERA, WHIP,K, W, AND SV. Onto my fantasy theory:

You cannot win all ten categories. I go for 7 and disregard the other three. The 3 I dont go for are: HRs, AVG, and RBI. Those 3 are the most fought over stat by everyone and would be hard to win even if I had great players with those stats. On the hitting side of the ball that leaves Runs and Stolen Bases. There are certain players that fit this mold that you can get for cheap or go for broke and get the upper echelon players. I will break it down by players you get cheap and the guys you have to draft high or trade to get.


Top players(You must get at least 2 of these but hopefully more):


Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Carl Crawford, Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki, Alfanso Soriano, Grady Sizemore, David Wright, BJ Upton, Brandon Phillips and Alex Rodriguez.




Sleepers: (Try to get 4 or more of these guys)


Bobby Abreu, Shane Victorino, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Jacoby Ellsbury, Eric Byrnes, Willy Taveras, Juan Pierre, Rafael Furcal, and Rickie Weeks.

Ok so now that you have those names in your mind you should know that all the top players will be drafted early so you have to snatch them with your top 2-3 picks. The sleepers may not start going til the tenth round or so depending on the depth of your league. Note: I drafted Ellsbury in the 18th round but his value has shot up and he has the potential to be a top 10 pick. At this time he is not an everyday player but if you can get him give up your power hitter and get him.

The general idea here is to get so many runs and SBs that your leaguemates cannot catch you. These guys all put up fairly decent stats across the board but that is just a bonus.

Ok. So now that is the hitters side of things. Here are my pitching theories:

Everyone competes for ERA and WHIP because inevitably they will be pretty close for everyone. The three keys are Wins, Strikeouts and Saves. You must get two top closers that will give you saves often and are dependable. Draft your closers high and don't look back. They will give you very meaningful points against guys who will ignore saves altogether and guys who didn't draft closers high. You want to take Closers on winning teams. I know that sounds obvious but you cannot get Saves if the team doesn't win. As for wins, you have to have winning pitchers on winning teams. Again, that is obvious but some people take good pitchers from bad teams and hope that they can win some games. The last thing you need is strikeouts. Draft the guy who has a history of the strikeout over a guy who will have slightly less ERA. Ks mean more. ERA will all get watered down. You have to get Ks and get the early. I know you are thinking that I am crazy because I am telling you to take everyone early. I will explain how it works (don't worry). The pitching list to look at when you form your team:


Closers to be taken as soon as you think someone will take your guy:

Jonathon Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, Billy Wagner, Bobby Jenks, and Mariano Rivera.

If you cannot get these guys then take a look at whoever is hot and follow the waiver wire. Get the hot closer and make sure they are getting you saves.


Starting Pitching Studs:

Brandon Webb, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Aaron Harang, C.C Sabathia, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Felix Hernandez, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee and Carlos Zambrano.

This list is probably a "duh" list to most of you but you should have at least 2 of these guys and try to get as many as you can.

Sleeper Options:

Edison Volquez, Ryan Dempster, Chad Billingsley, Javier Vazquez, Ted Lilly, Shawn Marcum, Ervin Santana, James Shields, and many more.

Do your own homework and know the waiver wire. It is your friend. Ill update the list of pitchers I like as much as can.

Ok so here is what your team should like and how you should get it:



C-- Any guy will do. Take someone you like or rotate catchers from the WW.



1B-- Only draft this position early if it is a great value, then trade the player for one that fits the scheme.




2B-- Try to get Phillips or Upton or check sleepers. Important position.




SS-- Reyes or Ramirez or J Roll are a great 1st round pick and good base to this plan.




3B- Arod but yeah you probably dont have the ammo or you have the 1st pick so check out Figgins or Wright.




OF-- If you didnt get the IFs that were mentioned then you gotta get some of the studs here. Also many sleepers are outfielders so try to pick them up late when you can.





So your draft should look like this:




1st round: A stud of your choosing from the hitters list.




2nd round: Another stud of the list.




3rd round: Take a top pitcher now.




4th round: Either top pitcher or another stud if one is available.




5th round: Either top pitcher or another stud depending on what you have done before.




6th- 8th round: Same as the previous rounds




9-11th: Closers should be on your team now from these rounds or before depending on your paranoia of not getting your closers rounds before this. Take another a catcher or 1B for trade bait.




12-16th-- Prime sleeper rounds for pitchers. Take a ton of SP and make sure they can win and get you some Ks.




17th-End-- Take best of what you can. Follow guide.



If you have already drafted then try to trade your guys for this type of strategy.

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